TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$445,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$446,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Under48c415,585$197,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218,080.243647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over52c173,512$90,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,226.224,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over53c69,438$36,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,809.1611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over53c48,305$25,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,836.21,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over52c45,936$23,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,886.585645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over53c14,000$7,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,439.994,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Over54c13,189$7,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,116.2444851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over53c8,956$4,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,709.824,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over53c8,248$4,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,333.216,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Over52c7,000$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6402445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over52c4,390$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.458,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.941,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56020350.7%103 W · 100 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over54c2,222$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8844749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over52c2,100$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.1168053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0405,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00049158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over53c1,794$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.72,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over53c1,680$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.042,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over52c1,667$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.841,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Over53c1,320$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.692046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Over53c1,300$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6893246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98f3…bf14backed Under47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5303562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Under53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47022753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b4…a4f5backed Under59c993.65$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.65887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+64.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Over53c834.8$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.4427351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over44c661.1$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8891252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over52c634$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.932,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over52c622.28$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.5956851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under47c607.62$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.933,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Under47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26532850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over52c361.37$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.913,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over37c356.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.88,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over53c300$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.41,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under49c300$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15299447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15658652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over35c299.74$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under75c283$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.671,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over54c240$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.673849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under67c209.72$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Over54c199.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2944949.2%221 W · 228 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over44c199.85$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.761,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over53c194.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7539053.6%209 W · 181 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over52c175.64$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9270546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a4…fb64backed Over22c163.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.55742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+40.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Over30c149.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.421842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under46c149$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.462,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over29c142.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.686,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Over54c131.16$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7134451.5%177 W · 167 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over50c110.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.761,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under58c107.93$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9474657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Over49c106$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9429147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Over51c101.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5240348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd17a…ffcabacked Under70c100.07$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.075149%25 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2342…12d6backed Over53c95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3513853.6%74 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Over55c93.15$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2353644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked Under48c90.87$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.259246.7%43 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bda…8254backed Under60c90$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.78966.3%59 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7de2…cd3fbacked Under46c90$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.245164.7%33 W · 18 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under49c83.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.322,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.477050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Over50c74.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3661450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Over52c71.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3469351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Under46c65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.120944%92 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed Over52c65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.87343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under74c62.69$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.594,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over48c62.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Over49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011352.2%59 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over52c60.64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.752,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under45c59.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3361948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under48c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.32,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over54c50.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.751,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Over52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2617953.1%95 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Under48c48.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1185949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf9…3a59backed Over53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516544.8%74 W · 91 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over55c42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.251,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Under48c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8439250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over36c41.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.845,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under50c40.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.592,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Over53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.226751.7%138 W · 129 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Under52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4673243.4%318 W · 414 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f33…addcbacked Under48c37.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+73.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd5b…3b06backed Over53c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.618556.5%48 W · 37 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb4…4551backed Under49c36.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7621152.6%111 W · 100 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Over50c34.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3625448.4%123 W · 131 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x409d…8f47backed Under46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6111050.9%56 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over53c32.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2297944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over53c30.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9967444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Over52c28.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1564452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x786f…1dcdbacked Over55c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45461.1%33 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over53c27.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.222,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over45c26.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.782,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2db9…846cbacked Over53c25.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Over53c22.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9334846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Over54c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7750748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe840…733cbacked Over50c21.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7912541.6%52 W · 73 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Over52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.435849.4%177 W · 181 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.