MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c9856fa757509f99eb30dff62091e13a2fef8c7a0d6c47b548ae1cf52b9ba69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 1,315$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.86 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 40c | 594.86$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.12 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 546.67$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.75 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 532.01$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.85 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 42c | 419.05$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 333.76$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 79c | 215.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 53c | 207.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 43c | 200.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 21c | 198$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 197.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…5449backed Over | 42c | 92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 41c | 82.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Under | 54c | 54.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 39c | 49.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 42c | 43.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 79c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 48c | 29.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.