MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd0ecf0c6fae495cd82ffd60de7637b11f467dd4223191a007a69bded3ae8117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 6,289$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…bf27backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 5,536$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 1c | 1,405$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 1,386$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.92 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,052$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 697.35$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 668$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 655.2$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.74 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 638.6$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 399.96$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 398.84$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.48 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 274$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 240.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 190$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 188$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 116.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 103.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 97.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 83.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 81.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…33a6backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 44.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 35.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.