MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61be94277b8b55ba983ded705e68abf77b441f874ac7322527e075898556aaef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 53c | 6,012$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186.4 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 46c | 5,435$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.78 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 2,623$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.71 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 2,455$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.8 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 2,023$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.25 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,445$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.57 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 954.21$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.86 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 54c | 912.5$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.66 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 565.55$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.4 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 394$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.78 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 361.33$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.48 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 345.74$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 54c | 201$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 170.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 47c | 159.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 132.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 49c | 122.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 53c | 110.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 44c | 84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 54c | 83.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 80.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 52c | 69.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 54c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 47c | 50.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 54c | 41.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 45c | 39.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 30.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 54c | 29.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 49c | 24.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.