Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe507124ad2ca809b32151bd32c8d92f906a08bb28c23e10594faded7ad2e2696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 602.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 424.87$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.59 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 338.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 214$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b9c8backed No | 58c | 172.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 163.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 149.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 79c | 148$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 113.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 61c | 97.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 34c | 96.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 88.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 85.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed No | 57c | 81.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 81.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 81.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 72.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 70.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 67.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 59.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 59.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 41c | 56.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 56.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 40c | 53.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 23c | 52.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 50.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 58c | 50.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 50.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 36.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 71c | 35.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 35.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 32.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 54c | 31.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 60c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 61c | 30.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 74c | 25.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 73c | 24.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 24.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 23.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed No | 62c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…35c9backed No | 61c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.