Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebd59b2c180056c7b5e993d2b9461e4db69e23eebc2d052434f19215806e993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 849.97$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 58c | 522.63$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.71 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 400$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.64 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 34c | 363.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 56c | 313.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.64 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 312.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 46c | 300$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.81 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 263$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 51c | 253.16$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 230.28$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 212.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.63 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 177.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 176.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 60c | 166.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 147.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 74c | 141.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…4d0fbacked Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 27c | 134.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 65c | 122.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 117$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 65c | 108.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 44c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 106.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 58c | 102.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 99.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 68c | 99.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 38c | 90.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef4…fe1cbacked Yes | 68c | 83.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 66c | 72.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 65.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 37c | 54.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 65c | 54.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 54.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 53.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 39c | 51.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…64afbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 49.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e1…3d5dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 35c | 40.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 63c | 37.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 36.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 35.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 60c | 32.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 29.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 28.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 70c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 27.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 25.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 24.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 55c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d0…9854backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 55c | 19.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…0051backed Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 73c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.