Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x477f4ac92b312410813a72a38332b639eda11dadb756c77a3a5b4b517d853de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 16c | 487.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 11c | 430.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 75c | 277.34$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 361 | 23.8%86 W · 275 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 24c | 260.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 480 | 39.8%191 W · 289 L | +31.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 21c | 220.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 243 | 44.9%109 W · 134 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 18c | 184.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 10c | 163.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 25c | 158.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 525 | 38.9%204 W · 321 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 150.44$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…a3d3backed Yes | 8c | 130.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 116.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 32c | 101.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | +25.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…4d0fbacked Yes | 18c | 93.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 36c | 79.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 444 | 58.8%261 W · 183 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 80c | 79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 66c | 69.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b9c8backed No | 73c | 68.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 66.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 59.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 49.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 68c | 41.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 163 | 63.2%103 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…2783backed Yes | 31c | 38.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 491 | 52.3%257 W · 234 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 23.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 16.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.