MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe69e343e720c5245a810cfc7c692c89d9c713ad4628d24581cec562e3cc2ece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 36c | 1,410$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.92 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 798.51$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.51 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 727.03$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 602.02$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 466.14$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 401.56$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.71 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed Colorado Rockies | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 399$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 392.48$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 276.86$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 208.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 200.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 193.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…0860backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 162.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 113.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 93.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 69.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 45.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 45.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 40.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…a04fbacked Boston Red Sox | 77c | 32.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Colorado Rockies | 36c | 32.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 30.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 24.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 47c | 22.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…cbffbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 17.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.