MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c148aec38a12ff15514d6a42183b796b430de040896378ef2fbdf7d83f6abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $313,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 43c | 302,590$128,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173,910.43 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 57c | 150,000$85,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,500 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 66,694$38,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,817.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,400 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 57c | 20,000$11,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,500 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 9,797$5,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,630.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 58c | 8,125$4,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,716.68 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 5,005$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,983 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 4,888$2,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,864.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 58c | 4,488$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,603.29 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 62c | 4,228$2,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.61 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 1,698$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.91 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 56c | 1,455$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 58c | 1,382$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.32 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 59c | 1,216$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.79 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Over | 57c | 979$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.03 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 7c | 722$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 42c | 584.5$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.17 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 60c | 528$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.32 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 456$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.4 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 58c | 440$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 60c | 420$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 57c | 240$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 171.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 60c | 120.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 69c | 115.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 103.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Over | 57c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…7442backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 75c | 79.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Over | 29c | 75.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 61c | 72.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 52.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1a93backed Over | 57c | 39.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 57c | 25.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…d22dbacked Over | 60c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 71c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.