MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ddab7052098a843e8db4b94ae904f66b6927b3600a28f6d1b049241a6758fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 48,198$25,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,555.7 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 16,192$7,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,051.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 14,423$7,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,351.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 6,820$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…6c5abacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 4,999$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 4,079$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 3,202$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 2,446$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.7 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 1,453$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.93 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 1,067$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 649.07$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.57 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 610.62$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.78 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 9c | 437$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 422$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 268.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 192.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 178$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 176.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 107.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 95.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 54.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 52c | 49.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 40.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 38.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 37.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 32.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.