MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45bcff4e06f382eca81f94c521527657c27c083a222c480fc685f9a84c37dbc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 12,991$4,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,059.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 10,782$6,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,504.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 1c | 1,782$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 65c | 1,026$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.08 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.04 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…f3c8backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 65c | 801.6$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.04 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 769.92$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.45 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 591.83$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 65c | 264.62$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Under | 60c | 178.57$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 60c | 131.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 54c | 100.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Under | 65c | 88.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 41c | 32.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 61c | 21.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.