MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a66e332aa5f94b544fc18eeae64902ebb36b4902a8de0f4db1d8b16a7bfcfd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…8409backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 23,953$15,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,383.7 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 17,092$5,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,979.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa013…2f8cbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 1,696$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 1,462$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 949.94$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…3439backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 373.13$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.86 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 259.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 254.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 251.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 221$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 211.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 193$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 188.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 156.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 111.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 108.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 98.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 88.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 85.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 79.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 73.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 73.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 72.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 71.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 58.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 55.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 40.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 38.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 28.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 23.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.