TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,391 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Over53c1,967$1,042 inWon+$924.2611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under47c720$339 inLost-$338.884,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under47c551.3$259 inLost-$259.113,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2f5…24adbacked Under55c402.71$222 inLost-$221.522025%5 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed Over45c302.71$135 inWon+$167.529636.5%35 W · 61 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under36c266.53$96 inLost-$95.9110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under47c178.72$84 inLost-$841,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3517…5862backed Under48c100$48 inLost-$488955.1%49 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over46c86.94$40 inWon+$46.5679955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73ff…0facbacked Over78c76.92$60 inWon+$16.9212575.2%94 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over36c55$20 inWon+$35.158,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under64c50$32 inLost-$325,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Under47c33.23$16 inLost-$15.6231446.8%147 W · 167 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc635…9ee6backed Over72c27.78$20 inWon+$7.78862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.