MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489f049d8a853c0c8a7a83d828abe18103a1cc8c2d38fe5ad90da18877f20aac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 1,811$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 1,496$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 19c | 1,031$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.74 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 33c | 529.09$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 67c | 482$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 74c | 354.75$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed Over | 20c | 343.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 335.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 80c | 320$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 305.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 17c | 281.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Over | 20c | 273.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…6e98backed Over | 21c | 270$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 79c | 230.7$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 27c | 196.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…707fbacked Over | 33c | 183.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 110.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 104.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Under | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 16c | 95.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 21c | 84.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 31c | 75.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 32c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 35c | 73.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Over | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Over | 33c | 68.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 64c | 63.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 23c | 62.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…aa24backed Under | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 20c | 58.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Under | 68c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.