MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b96e3a1c0b567d448dba41a85b34a51d703a0b5ddbfe06223a95c4f58c2085d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 45c | 13,872$6,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,301.46 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 54c | 11,834$6,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,410.71 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 55c | 862.96$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.96 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 750$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 581.98$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.89 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…81f8backed No | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 386$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.56 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 39c | 299.18$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 45c | 270$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 61c | 236.18$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…e301backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 152$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…1a0dbacked No | 55c | 75.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 47c | 62.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…e388backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…aa24backed No | 56c | 25.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.