Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fe6380a9bc9c18233ce9965eabc236e022aeb20dacca622cd0036a3d321f019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 48c | 772.11$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.16 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 700.06$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.07 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 498.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 69c | 411.24$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 49c | 358.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 328.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 326.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 48c | 296.97$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 247.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 244.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 20c | 233.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 219.94$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 52c | 199.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 48c | 195$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 190.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 153.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 150.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 146.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 69c | 144.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 60c | 142$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 138.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 68c | 133.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 125.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 125$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 41c | 124.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 50c | 124.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 59c | 118.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 77c | 118.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 10c | 116.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 41c | 112.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 105.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 89.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 88.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 87.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 55c | 86.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 38c | 84.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 83.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 42c | 79.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 80c | 77.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 56c | 77.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 52c | 76.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 74.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 70.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 68.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 64.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 62.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 53c | 55.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 45c | 53.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 52.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 50.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 43c | 46.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 48c | 44.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 45c | 41.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 40c | 41.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 50c | 39.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 43c | 37.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked No | 44c | 35.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 35.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 43c | 34.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 34.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 33.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…b1f5backed No | 43c | 33.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 30.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…299ebacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 52c | 29.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 28.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 27.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…6e1cbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 53c | 24.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 23.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 23.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.