Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c68a1448a4cdb3993a297f1f0f759774383f2e514773621ceb04589399930bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 18c | 563.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 18c | 463.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 21c | 376.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 370.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 279.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 256.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 222.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 197.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 30c | 185.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 27c | 150.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 138.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 133.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…c124backed Yes | 21c | 123$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 19c | 113.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 20c | 101.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 94.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 94.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 86.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 68c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 74.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 21c | 70.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 65.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 35c | 59.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 53.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 28c | 50.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 41.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 39.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 33.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 32.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 25.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…6e1cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 17.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 80c | 14.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.