Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf3934dfc014233beda6f87619371f394789219377ce438d38f74870f56c68ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 723.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…c124backed Yes | 19c | 582.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 13c | 518.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 448.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 393$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 79c | 340.13$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 76c | 327.11$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 25c | 313.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 12c | 272.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 254.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 22c | 180.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 77c | 152$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 146.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 19c | 140.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 15c | 139.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 136.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 34c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 25c | 119.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 112$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 14c | 106.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 77c | 106.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 44c | 106.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 105.35$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 104.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 22c | 103.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 24c | 98.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 24c | 98.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…81babacked Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 25c | 93.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 77c | 83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 82.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…46c1backed Yes | 14c | 80.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 78.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 13c | 76.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed No | 80c | 74.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 71.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 67.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 66.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 26c | 64.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 63.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 47c | 63.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 79c | 62.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 18c | 62.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 61.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 60c | 58.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 56.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 46.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 44.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 42.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 57c | 36.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 30.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…6e1cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 78c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.