World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15069567e9cc9594d2b061a36d14dde1bfe15fb9b54b99c6e8afb91d36dbd5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,942$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.07 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 68c | 1,010$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 522.38$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 245$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 237.45$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 77c | 199.87$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 192.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 177.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 158.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 113.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 76.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 62.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…633bbacked Yes | 31c | 51.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 46.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 70c | 42.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 38.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 35.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 68c | 26.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +2,821.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 77cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 67c | 25.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 20.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 18.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 71c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.