World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x100209d91b77530da4ef6d6ddaa4e86c0114db965a9758f9b8c2d7f0101fe72d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 17c | 633.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 16c | 544.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 494$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 11c | 397.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 10c | 372.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 358.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 341.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 68c | 293.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 5c | 288.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 5c | 237.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 57c | 236.87$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 61c | 191.86$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 10c | 188.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 18c | 168.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 78c | 155.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 149.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 120.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 116.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 94.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 76.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 70.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 68.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 61.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 38c | 57.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…ab41backed Yes | 75c | 53.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 79c | 47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 76c | 45.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 60c | 38.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 62c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…7714backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.