Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7abf6872129f672cae7e4836f6a2fa297b74037d65041619d8aaf75f334d84d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 36c | 420.32$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.77 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 414.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 65c | 403.43$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 80c | 376.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 15c | 310.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 31c | 304.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed Yes | 71c | 261$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 29c | 239.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 238.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 44c | 192.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 34c | 177.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 38c | 150.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 138.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 35c | 135$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 38c | 128$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 29c | 126.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 36c | 93.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 90.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 77.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 24c | 74.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 62.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 27c | 58.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 37c | 40.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 62c | 40.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 37c | 38.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 38.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 48c | 37.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed No | 32c | 35.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 40c | 31.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 34c | 30.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed Yes | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 63c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed Yes | 64c | 25.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 63c | 24.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 62c | 22.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 62c | 21.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 78c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.