Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27df936fb0db1584ce387e3da712f2aa10b6be8a533de953aee57f89fa75dc94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,022$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 285.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 273.27$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 239.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 235.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 42c | 172.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 167$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 28c | 163.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 60c | 150.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 141.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 44c | 139.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 38c | 137.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 62c | 117.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 31c | 116.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 105.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 46c | 101.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 72c | 90.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 72c | 87.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 47c | 84.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 45c | 82.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 41c | 78.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 77.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 76.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 55c | 67.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 67.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 62.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 58.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 48c | 51.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 50.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 30c | 50.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 48.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 31c | 46.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 42c | 46.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 54c | 45.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 40c | 45.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 42.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 54c | 39.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked No | 44c | 39.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 70c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 37c | 37.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 58c | 34.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 66c | 33.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 44c | 33.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 33.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 38c | 30.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed Yes | 44c | 30.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 61c | 30.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 59c | 28.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 38c | 26.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 41c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 52c | 24.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 73c | 22.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed No | 70c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 61c | 21.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 60c | 21.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 53c | 19.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed Yes | 55c | 18.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 60c | 17.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.