Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ef92ed76e9dbd5fde49ca981a90bb0a3e0501a7af9165299f2d9a446c89d0d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 921.75$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 11c | 575.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 374.5$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 15c | 297.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 14c | 197.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 196.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 77c | 193.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 183.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 176.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 54c | 173.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 6c | 172.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 20c | 161.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 14c | 126.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 96.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 11c | 94.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 24c | 88.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 86.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 15c | 82.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 79.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 73.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 15c | 66.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 58.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 37c | 56.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 27c | 51.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 69c | 36.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 76c | 35.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 48c | 33.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 78c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 65c | 29.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…71cdbacked Yes | 46c | 27.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 66c | 26.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 26.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 79c | 25.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed Yes | 77c | 23.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 22.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 79c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 76c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.