World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf96980d8fc4bbbf32f881104fa8cf76c246c12775b3fd3807a311c4db97903fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 23c | 488.95$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 405.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 22c | 401.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 351.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 328.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 321$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 72c | 277.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 271.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…0e27backed No | 76c | 256.57$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…2467backed No | 79c | 253.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 22c | 213.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 209.35$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 28c | 208.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 19c | 197.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 187.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 174.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 165.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 151$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 27c | 146.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 26c | 142.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 24c | 137.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 136$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 127.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 126.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 23c | 122.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 121.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 120.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 30c | 117.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 113.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 33c | 111.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 19c | 110.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 18c | 109.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 29c | 92.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 69c | 90.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 72c | 89.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 74c | 85.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 82.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 70c | 79.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 79.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 78.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 76.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 76.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 75.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 16c | 74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 64.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 57.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 57.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 56.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 54.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 49.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 44.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 31c | 40.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…a1d6backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 75c | 39.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 64c | 39.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…5757backed Yes | 38c | 39.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 36.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 35.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 33.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 69c | 33.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 72c | 28.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4349backed No | 73c | 26.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 23.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f08…de33backed No | 76c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 68c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 58c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 75c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.