World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680ac22ce9af10038bb6cb8bebea1ccf0455bffdade26dec806aa26338517ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 8c | 1,227$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 599.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 14c | 505.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 463.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 9c | 434$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 360.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 11c | 349.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 340.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 316.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 267.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 15c | 242.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 232.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 28c | 200.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 6c | 200.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 191.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 6c | 184.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 163.24$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 11c | 124.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 16c | 123.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 15c | 120.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 11c | 117.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 11c | 112.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 21c | 110.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 15c | 103.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 102.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 101.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 21c | 91.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 29c | 82.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 77.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 17c | 72.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 68.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 15c | 65.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 64.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 27c | 54.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 45.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 78c | 36.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 72c | 34.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…9a8fbacked No | 76c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 69c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 70c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.