World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc7cdf730bdd7f54436adc8d91805c0ded30dffb3186712028872492095fccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 737.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.84 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 69c | 510.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 53c | 435.62$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.92 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 79c | 415.16$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 396.21$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.76 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 76c | 381.98$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 363.34$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 23c | 358.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 48c | 339.43$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 46c | 327.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 12c | 308.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 288.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.48 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 52c | 255.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 235.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 207$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 43c | 198.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…b04cbacked Yes | 41c | 187.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 180.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 40c | 164.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 160.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 158.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 153.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 57c | 152.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 56c | 145.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 141.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 71c | 132.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 54c | 129.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 41c | 126.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 51c | 125.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 121.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 34c | 110.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 52c | 106.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 26c | 98.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 97.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 95.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 54c | 92.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 37c | 89.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 67c | 87.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 87.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 85.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 25c | 84.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 84.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 83.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 59c | 80.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 52c | 79.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 59c | 69.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 68.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 33c | 67.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 33c | 65.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1a…4d5bbacked Yes | 77c | 65.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 60c | 60.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 36c | 59.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 57.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…5757backed Yes | 53c | 56.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ee…2a9bbacked Yes | 52c | 56.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 19c | 55.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 54c | 53.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 38c | 52.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 65c | 52.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 51.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 56c | 51.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 75c | 50.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 32c | 49.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 54c | 49.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…4313backed No | 55c | 47.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 63c | 47.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 51c | 46.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 79c | 46.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 27c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 65c | 45.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 63c | 45.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 66c | 44.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…00afbacked Yes | 38c | 43.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 43.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 35c | 42.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 41.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 42c | 40.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 64c | 39.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.