TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,809 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes25c1,538$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.1931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71d0…b73abacked No75c1,267$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.910757.9%62 W · 45 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes25c754.98$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.611,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No11c297.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.271,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes34c233.38$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.851,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No5c229.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.612,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedee…7139backed Yes32c220.05$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.536330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c202$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c200.29$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.894,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No47c199.39$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.963323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes26c180.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9810834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes68c180$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.031275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No33c180$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0f…b951backed Yes74c179.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.214983.7%41 W · 8 L+13.2wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+59.7%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No70c172.94$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.623,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes23c166.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes21c149.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.622,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No76c132.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d07…36bfbacked No75c123.62$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.672157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe06d…ac24backed No75c113.68$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.724032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No71c113.32$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.991,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No74c105.34$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.182,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed No75c104.65$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6311438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No79c102.75$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1920172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa539…1e87backed Yes61c101.6$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.491172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes26c99.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c97.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.87,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.995,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes27c91.48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c89.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.694,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef5e…b385backed No74c77.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.43161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No66c76.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c74.21$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.862,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c73.85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes21c73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0352533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce1…77dbbacked No32c70.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.451625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c69.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No74c69.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6251553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No70c65.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0968645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes35c64.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7721641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No23c61.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4438961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.84991.8%45 W · 4 L+18.2wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+80.1%equal weight77+0.25 edge/pick
0xef5f…3d94backed Yes56c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.55785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes59c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.363594.3%33 W · 2 L+13.8wins+0.40per pick55cpaid+79.9%equal weight76+0.23 edge/pick
0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes24c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.831888.9%16 W · 2 L+6.9wins+0.38per pick51cpaid+86.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb33e…28c3backed Yes51c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.611100%11 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+82.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.133390.9%30 W · 3 L+10.4wins+0.32per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No78c57.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed No70c56.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5611926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes26c56.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8424434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No79c52.49$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.215,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.815635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacca…8996backed No78c49.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.344721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a3…9326backed No77c46.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.742070%14 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No63c44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.734,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5814…bbfabacked No75c41.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No80c37.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.998257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed No76c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.724053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No37c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.981,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No71c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.841258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No70c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8543859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No73c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.981,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked No78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.294,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No73c23.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4439157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No67c23.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…b1b2backed No73c23.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173941%16 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c23.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.225,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No77c23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6744553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No70c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No76c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ce…b36fbacked No74c20.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.140461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No73c18.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No78c17.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5661752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No61c17.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5630168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c15.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No69c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3138258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No75c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3235058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No80c13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a96…4007backed No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.