Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73402f30251cffb78373ed55059030138c637cd92753aad7ba002659d4b85b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 38c | 888.2$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.72 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 512.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 305.23$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 29c | 237.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 32c | 228.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 199.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 40c | 190.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked No | 73c | 185.57$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 147.54$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 142.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 63c | 137.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 23c | 134$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 35c | 121.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 67c | 117.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 77c | 114.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 113.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…d970backed Yes | 21c | 108.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 21c | 106.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 67c | 105.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 46c | 105.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 32c | 103.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 82.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 46c | 80.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 74.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked No | 29c | 72.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 35c | 71.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 65c | 69.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 30c | 67.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 25c | 63.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 63.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 34c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 72c | 57.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 76c | 52.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 50.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f8…5d56backed Yes | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 31c | 49.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 69c | 48.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 73c | 48.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 70c | 46.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 34c | 46.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 26c | 46.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 33c | 45.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked No | 33c | 45.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 68c | 44.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 34c | 44.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 42.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 74c | 42.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 40.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 36c | 38.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed Yes | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 55c | 36.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed Yes | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 51c | 35.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 77c | 33.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 77c | 31.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked No | 32c | 31.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed No | 37c | 28.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 68c | 28.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 64c | 24.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 23.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 66c | 23.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 61c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked No | 65c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 17.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 64c | 17.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 76c | 15.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.