Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43f87172049635e2a9d7fc028706aa08b7f9fc1571576e53047b0b6c44e8668b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 521.7$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 288.86$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 243.56$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 55c | 238.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 58c | 232.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 42c | 184.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 34c | 181.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 145.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 140.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 36c | 135.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 62c | 124.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 117.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 50c | 111.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 63c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Yes | 46c | 97.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 91.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 56c | 87.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 86.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 49c | 81.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 45c | 77.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 58c | 73.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 33c | 68.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 68.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 36c | 66.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 58c | 64.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 60.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 40c | 58.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 51c | 54.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 52.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 78c | 51.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 48c | 48.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 45c | 48.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 63c | 47.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 47.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 44.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 51c | 43.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 45c | 42.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 59c | 40.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 60c | 40.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 32c | 39.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 65c | 38.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 38.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 58c | 38.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 49c | 36.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 69c | 35.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 36c | 34.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 39c | 33.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 31.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 45c | 31.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 39c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…2618backed Yes | 51c | 29.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +213%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 62c | 29.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 63c | 29.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 28.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 64c | 27.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 26.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 52c | 22.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 22.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 57c | 19.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked No | 65c | 17.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.