Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9671ce8de31165c90104199f7c983130cbdbed3cd63600b99a1437a5db49969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,024$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,534$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 271.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 63c | 266.4$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 233.73$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 39c | 225.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 204.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 199.74$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 37c | 199.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 26c | 170.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 165.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 164.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 163.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 161.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 158.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 157.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 149.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 31c | 145.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 141.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 140.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 135.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 78c | 126.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 40c | 126.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 120.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 119$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 50c | 117.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 44c | 114.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 111.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 96.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 44c | 93.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 92.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 92.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 55c | 89.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 34c | 89.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…fd13backed Yes | 56c | 89.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 34c | 86.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 70c | 86.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 85.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 59c | 85.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 40c | 83.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 57c | 78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 69c | 77.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 75.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 67c | 74.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 74.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 42c | 69.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 69.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 59c | 69.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 25c | 68.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 31c | 68.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 62c | 65.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 30c | 65.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed Yes | 63c | 65.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…a32dbacked Yes | 39c | 63.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 31c | 63.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 62.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 35c | 62.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 39c | 60.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 70c | 54.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 54.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 53.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 38c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 53c | 51.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 67c | 50.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 69c | 48.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 76c | 46.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 45.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 68c | 44.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 42.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 32c | 40.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 71c | 37.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 58c | 37.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 62c | 36.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 39c | 36.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 35c | 36.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 35.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 67c | 35.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 34.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 33.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 63c | 33.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.