Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c475a59038bdfb300f86163721b9fd228660ceadc023bc5e0bb3f421faebc67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 694.4$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.95 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 74c | 663.79$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 41c | 607.22$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.67 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 464.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 10c | 396.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.25 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 27c | 335.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.65 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 288.82$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 14c | 274.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.91 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 263.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 40c | 258.57$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 246.46$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 241.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 235.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 228.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 23c | 227.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.36 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 224.46$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 199.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 174.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 173$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.71 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 159.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…a689backed Yes | 23c | 157.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +327.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 21c | 136.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 78c | 136.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 63c | 134.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 133$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 23c | 131.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 124.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 119.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 36c | 117.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 111.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 16c | 110.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 19c | 110.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 109.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 18c | 100.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 93.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Yes | 16c | 92.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 19c | 89.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…fd13backed Yes | 23c | 87.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 80.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 20c | 79.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 79.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 64c | 77.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 20c | 75.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Yes | 74c | 69.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…2e9abacked Yes | 22c | 63.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 21c | 54.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 59c | 53.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 74c | 51.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 41.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 39.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 79c | 38.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 62c | 30.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 80c | 29.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 55c | 28.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 54c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 80c | 27.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 75c | 25.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 70c | 25.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 24.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 79c | 24.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 55c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 47c | 23.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 60c | 21.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 21.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 74c | 21.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 21.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed No | 59c | 20.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 80c | 18.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 18.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.