Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7612d5e0441a7691551ebced994401c38989a74b719f3850c95a080fd2e4bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,978$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 77c | 521.74$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 461.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 445.06$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 26c | 325.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 17c | 289.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 262.17$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 71c | 244.81$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 241.5$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 224.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 25c | 200.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 27c | 176.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 74c | 164.16$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 163$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 78c | 161.46$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 156.1$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 26c | 149.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 143.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 142.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 9c | 140.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 71c | 140.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 135.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 30c | 135.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 127.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 24c | 126.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 125.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 125.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 114.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 108.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 106.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 101.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 19c | 96.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 93.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…cd70backed Yes | 31c | 93.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 74c | 92.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 28c | 89.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 19c | 84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…6fe6backed Yes | 25c | 81.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…fd13backed Yes | 25c | 81.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 77.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 23c | 77.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 26c | 76.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 74.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 27c | 72.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 23c | 72.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 21c | 71.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 73c | 68.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 27c | 66.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 23c | 63.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 30c | 62.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 22c | 58.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 77c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 73c | 56.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 51.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 50.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 25c | 50.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 23c | 49.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 26c | 49.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 71c | 46.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 24c | 43.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 42.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 29c | 42.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 24c | 41.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 69c | 37.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 78c | 36.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 33.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed No | 76c | 33.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 78c | 31.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 70c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 28.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 28.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d98cbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked No | 72c | 25.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.