Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5469fe0356a07ab8e7fda19719f1cb9b877d34f4625999f94c7c599d98be26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 57c | 966.96$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.14 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 719.57$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 51c | 336.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.19 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 324.98$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 320.96$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 320.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 293.85$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 46c | 275.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 56c | 249.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 218.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 188.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 68c | 181.34$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 44c | 168.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 157.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 52c | 156.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 53c | 153.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 43c | 139$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 68c | 136.69$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 136.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 41c | 122.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 36c | 120.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 120.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 119.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 34c | 119.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 52c | 116.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 102.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 100.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 77c | 98.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 45c | 97.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 94.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…a276backed No | 63c | 94.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 90.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 25c | 88.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 73c | 82.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 22c | 76.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 71.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 70.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 41c | 69.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 25c | 69.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 38c | 69.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 68.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 64.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 47c | 60.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 43c | 60.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 45c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 56.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 32c | 55.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 52.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 50.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 45c | 50.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 50.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 50.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 48.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 74c | 48.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 42c | 47.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 46.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 23c | 45.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 34c | 45.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c74…3f8cbacked Yes | 41c | 43.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 58c | 43.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 28c | 42.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 41c | 41.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 55c | 40.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…f03abacked Yes | 54c | 36.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 68c | 35.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…1e2bbacked Yes | 43c | 34.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 66c | 34.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 45c | 33.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 54c | 33.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 43c | 32.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a32…b4c2backed Yes | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 60c | 30.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 59c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 29.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 45c | 29.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 55c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.