Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x538d4a42dd5b971a37be04bc9f9f13ca1fe3f65fb2c85115d0d01d6575cbd180
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 725.51$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 705.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 644.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 46c | 524.33$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.1 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 438.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 31c | 349.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 74c | 327.58$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 312.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 312.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 297.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 268.49$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 15c | 187.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 48c | 168.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…a276backed Yes | 70c | 158.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 15c | 140.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 26c | 132.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 20c | 128.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 123.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 49c | 114.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 70c | 103.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 52c | 95.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 55c | 93.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 89.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 30c | 88.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 17c | 88.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 20c | 87.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 75c | 87.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 25c | 75.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 19c | 73.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 22c | 69.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 68.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 67.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 21c | 65.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 23c | 64.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 63.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 60.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 60.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 59.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 54c | 57.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 62c | 55.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…ec7bbacked No | 79c | 55.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked No | 78c | 45.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 71c | 44.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 24c | 43.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5186…2515backed Yes | 29c | 42.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 73c | 40.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 67c | 39.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 36.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 47c | 34.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 33.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 55c | 32.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 52c | 31.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…eb60backed Yes | 46c | 30.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 68c | 30.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 54c | 27.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 50c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 64c | 24.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 54c | 23.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 68c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ae…0885backed No | 70c | 21.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec9…9d4bbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 54c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 75c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 79c | 17.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed No | 80c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.