Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8695cf8b32bd5f0db1ae47b4f0098fc54707a5d46e8b576128a26a72f1c145ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0450…bd51backed No | 72c | 259.31$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 35c | 249.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 197.25$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 170.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes | 38c | 147.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 144.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 132.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 38c | 131.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 121.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 40c | 121$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 118.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 118.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 113.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 104.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 94.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 66c | 82.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 77.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 27c | 75.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 60c | 73.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 40c | 62.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…da86backed Yes | 40c | 61.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 60.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 59.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…145bbacked Yes | 43c | 57.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 35c | 57.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 56.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 56.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 55.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 32c | 52.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 50.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 39c | 49.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 66c | 49.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 49.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…ec7bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 65c | 44.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 29c | 43.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 69c | 43.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 33c | 41.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 40.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 74c | 39.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa92…779bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 38.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes | 42c | 36.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 32.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 32.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 62c | 30.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 61c | 29.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 71c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 63c | 27.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 67c | 26.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 42c | 25.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 64c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.