World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982e1aeee976852177fd550442c4e2f5a5e8a764c3c1b4d722ed1fb6c18b33ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 276.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.35 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 75c | 214$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 202.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 14c | 181.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 67c | 168.74$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 9c | 165.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 62c | 159.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 142.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…4871backed Yes | 48c | 89.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 22c | 81.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 80.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 24c | 79.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 79.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 75.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 69.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 45c | 66.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 65.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 34c | 61.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 60.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 19c | 59.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 56.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 77c | 47.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 64c | 47.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 39c | 43.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 70c | 42.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 42.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 43c | 40.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 31c | 38.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…813bbacked Yes | 32c | 33.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 33.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 33.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 38c | 32.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 70c | 31.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 22.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 67c | 20.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 70c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 66c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 64c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.