IPO · resolved market
Will Mobia Medical's market cap be less than $500M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55244907f94ff2f94cc3ebc9ad9ebdc56a91fb46dab9cda5aa0fbf2bbc4006f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 55c | 3,846$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.83 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 65c | 1,001$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.19 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 79c | 671.62$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 22c | 471.83$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.9 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 310$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…79fcbacked No | 50c | 303.75$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 21c | 130.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 115$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 79c | 100.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 79c | 62.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 50c | 55.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 51.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c990backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280c…169cbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…d0dcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…085ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…9c44backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…86c2backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mobia Medical's market cap be less than $500M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Mobia Medical's market cap be at least $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Mobia Medical's market cap be between $500M and $700M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Mobia Medical's market cap be between $700M and $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.