IPO · resolved market
Will Mobia Medical's market cap be between $500M and $700M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x275acf1563aae08490cf02156ae72218f2785ab161a0965cece02323c017e19b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 995.96$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.67 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 55c | 957.11$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.3 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…9788backed Yes | 67c | 892.65$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 745.29$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.12 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 64c | 632.6$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.86 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 47c | 543.18$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 31c | 500$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 36c | 320$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 72c | 289$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.98 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 37c | 241.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 38c | 140$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 28c | 130$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 49c | 127.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed76…8520backed No | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 41c | 117.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 44c | 114.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70cd…4694backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…95ebbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…dab9backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…6895backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed No | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…d14abacked No | 62c | 74.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 70.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 47c | 66.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 65.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 64.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 66c | 61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…caa2backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 38c | 53.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 64c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…4793backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af0…7aefbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…476dbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Yes | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41d…738ebacked No | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…7f5bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa8…b3e2backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…ac55backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…23a0backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…1b21backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…9c44backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…4193backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…e34abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mobia Medical's market cap be between $500M and $700M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Mobia Medical's market cap be at least $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Mobia Medical's market cap be between $700M and $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Mobia Medical's market cap be less than $500M at market close on IPO day?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.