TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6435…1247backed Yes1c8,635$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes49c650.77$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes28c617.2$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes49c458.31$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22531943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes30c422.93$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8430144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c374$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.055,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes4c369.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1435133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c349.88$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.825,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes43c336.98$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No42c321$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9129751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No31c304.04$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.811,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa0…1a65backed Yes32c303.42$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.892133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c230.05$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.693,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes48c223.29$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.151,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes48c201.22$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.391,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes15c190.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2534624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c170.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.714,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes46c168.59$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8243238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes45c157.35$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.754,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes29c155.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.732,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No65c152.34$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8513755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4302…8d4fbacked No35c151$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.718253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed No35c149.6$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c148.57$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No55c144$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.41,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes56c130.04$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.554047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.892,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c121.87$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.644,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes14c121.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904c…4172backed No47c120.43$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.823850%19 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes59c117.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…3257backed No72c117.64$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.642540%10 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No57c116.67$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.121,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e65…1b38backed Yes57c113.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes54c104.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8311343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c101.7$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.618,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e97…cd70backed No37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+74.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9849941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes65c91.19$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.071,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No55c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.934,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No55c87.05$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.620852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes36c86.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.82951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes48c85.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5123436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No36c85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.23,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes70c83.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1139968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes33c83.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2220144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes64c80.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No46c80$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.943,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No72c76.97$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.381,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked No40c76.3$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.428036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No59c75.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9333450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68e…a093backed Yes41c73.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309530.5%29 W · 66 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d60…792abacked Yes53c72.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No30c72.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked No35c72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.469552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed No68c68.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9213751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes33c65.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5914243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No48c65.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.634,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes64c63.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5283360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No51c63.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0453925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No64c62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.549058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes48c59.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.785837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes26c59.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.571,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c59.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.153,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes45c57.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2267336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No31c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.951,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…47fcbacked Yes65c53.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No54c52.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.133567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes42c51.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No58c51.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed No31c51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1920230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb5…cbc8backed Yes41c50.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.517838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed No33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3817364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.721,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e91…11d7backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed No28c49.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9910427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes47c49.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes41c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.681,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes46c46.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2418931.7%60 W · 129 L-40.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes50c45.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.78228%23 W · 59 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3510834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes61c44.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.031,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes69c44.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.262,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes47c42.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2066926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa65…18a8backed No57c42.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.328063.8%51 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed Yes69c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9827669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes66c40.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.932,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ee…983cbacked Yes60c40.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.467152.1%37 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed No36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0423241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes53c39.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.865349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes40c39.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6445236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No63c37.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.957264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes72c36.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes29c35.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.