Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99cd90dea8ad204fd51da6384a61f274a5a1e66988c1b5f4a71977e4e7995dae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6435…1247backed Yes | 1c | 8,635$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 49c | 650.77$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.9 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 28c | 617.2$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.29 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 49c | 458.31$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 30c | 422.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 374$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 4c | 369.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 349.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 43c | 336.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 42c | 321$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.91 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 31c | 304.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.81 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed Yes | 32c | 303.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 230.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 48c | 223.29$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 201.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 15c | 190.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 170.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 46c | 168.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 157.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 155.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 152.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 35c | 151$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed No | 35c | 149.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 148.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 144$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 56c | 130.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 121.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 14c | 121.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 47c | 120.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Yes | 59c | 117.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 72c | 117.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 57c | 116.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 57c | 113.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 54c | 104.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 101.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…cd70backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 65c | 91.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 55c | 87.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 36c | 86.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 48c | 85.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 36c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 70c | 83.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 33c | 83.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 64c | 80.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 76.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 40c | 76.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 59c | 75.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 41c | 73.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Yes | 53c | 72.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 30c | 72.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 35c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 68c | 68.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 33c | 65.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 65.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 64c | 63.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 51c | 63.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 64c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 26c | 59.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 59.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 45c | 57.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…47fcbacked Yes | 65c | 53.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 54c | 52.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 42c | 51.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 51.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed No | 31c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cbc8backed Yes | 41c | 50.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…11d7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed No | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 47c | 49.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 46c | 46.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 50c | 45.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 61c | 44.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 69c | 44.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 47c | 42.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 57c | 42.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed Yes | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 66c | 40.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 60c | 40.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 53c | 39.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 40c | 39.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 37.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 72c | 36.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 29c | 35.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.