Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd69b194558ae090dc00e93347b10c6411e24183fda9307e7e211f830f942afaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,439$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.95 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 47c | 1,002$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.56 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 73c | 993.63$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 891.51$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 10c | 845.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.76 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 35c | 647.26$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.27 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 17c | 617.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 611.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 68c | 426.05$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.05 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 24c | 394.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 76c | 377.05$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 346.51$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 29c | 318.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 31c | 296.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 295.08$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 43c | 227.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.75 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 220.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 219.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 27c | 213.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 208.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 208.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 70c | 202.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 165.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 28c | 156.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 154.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 29c | 154.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 145.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed No | 30c | 145.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 144.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 64c | 136.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 38c | 132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 21c | 130.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…bc27backed No | 79c | 126.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 69c | 123.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 121$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 26c | 120.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 119.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 119$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 64c | 105.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 67c | 104.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 35c | 102.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 100.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…cd70backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 53c | 98.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 72c | 97.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…6c44backed Yes | 61c | 95.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 20c | 86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 19c | 85.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 74c | 78.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 32c | 77.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 51c | 76.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed No | 32c | 73.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 78c | 62.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 25c | 62.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 42c | 59.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 48c | 58.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 18c | 57.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 62c | 56.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 66c | 54.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 42c | 54.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 53c | 52.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…9b55backed No | 24c | 52.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 46.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 62c | 40.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 39.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed No | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 65c | 37.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 77c | 34.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 71c | 32.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 33c | 31.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 48c | 30.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed No | 77c | 30.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 28.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 26.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 67c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 76c | 25.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 58c | 21.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed No | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 80c | 19.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.