Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e235ca0fff4333453bfff6dd712140009fa76e1942d331c743b3e131893d40a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 1c | 1,974$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 1c | 1,788$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,026$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 700.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 699.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d4a3backed Yes | 5c | 409.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 351.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 289.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 19c | 270.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 267.3$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…11d7backed Yes | 8c | 265.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 61c | 243.52$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.71 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 225.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 35c | 211.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 203.38$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 189.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 18c | 117.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 17c | 109.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 22c | 106.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 32c | 104.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 98.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 80c | 97.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 16c | 95.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 17c | 86.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 14c | 85.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 36c | 78.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 33c | 75.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…3cffbacked No | 19c | 71.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +432.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed No | 19c | 63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 33c | 60.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 56.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 75c | 53.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 45.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed Yes | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 42c | 41.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.