Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d151d9c6d87572d41913ff1d6b126c44a7f979e5728a0fb42ecaf3a798af73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,859$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…71cdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,029$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 47c | 2,295$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.4 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 1,205$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 1,100$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,030$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 728.9$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.07 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 21c | 601.1$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.37 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 6c | 560$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 45c | 452.76$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 381.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 4c | 272.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…e7e5backed Yes | 70c | 270.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 262.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 64c | 258.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 25c | 249.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 59c | 210.46$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 48c | 209.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 202.52$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 25c | 173.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed No | 73c | 164.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 160.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 54c | 155.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 80c | 149.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 143.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 14c | 139.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 132.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 14c | 98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 91.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 47c | 73.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 25c | 72.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 26c | 70.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 18c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 22c | 68.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 40c | 67.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 19c | 66.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 66.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 62.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…0cb6backed Yes | 77c | 56.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 56c | 53.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 55c | 52.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 52.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 77c | 51.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 46c | 41.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 33c | 40.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 30c | 39.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 29c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 37.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 56c | 35.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 33.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 78c | 33.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 78c | 33.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…56c3backed Yes | 48c | 32.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 30.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed No | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8780…5f74backed Yes | 54c | 22.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…75aebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…76bebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 19.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 76c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 14.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 77c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…d6fabacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.