Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be8e96aae182bb6890b98b5febc17b6ddac29695686fd1bd1fd2999eab03917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 33c | 1,854$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.71 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 1,301$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 818.27$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.63 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 28c | 590.9$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.61 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 577.48$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 368.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.74 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 367.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 25c | 355.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 48c | 337.37$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 301.02$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 12c | 284.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.36 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 39c | 264.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 210$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 53c | 186.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 185$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 173.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 170.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 38c | 157.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 46c | 145$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 48c | 144.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 137.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 130.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 128.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 29c | 126.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 122.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed Yes | 65c | 108.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 105.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 22c | 98.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 96.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 62c | 89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 36c | 87.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 46c | 81.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 81.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes | 18c | 66.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 67c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…3d94backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 30c | 59.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 59.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Yes | 42c | 53.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 50.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 47.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 45.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…426ebacked Yes | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…56c3backed Yes | 47c | 42.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 36c | 41.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 29c | 39.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 26c | 39.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 47c | 38.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 30c | 37.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8003…135bbacked Yes | 30c | 37.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 64c | 36.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8780…5f74backed Yes | 42c | 35.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 34.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 35c | 34.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…09e0backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 67c | 33.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Yes | 52c | 31.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d8…9ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 30.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 28.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 44c | 24.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 24.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 20.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 72c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 66c | 17.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.