TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,245

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,611 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedee…7139backed Yes33c1,854$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.716330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes39c1,301$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.585,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No55c818.27$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.631,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes28c590.9$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.616227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No25c577.48$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.574,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes30c368.41$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.7473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c367.12$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.9617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No25c355.8$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.099058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes48c337.37$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.633058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No49c301.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.441,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes12c284.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.3634624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No39c264.37$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3356424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c227$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.392,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c210$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.495,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No53c186.62$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0629751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c185$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No68c173.49$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.482,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c170.67$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.13,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes38c157.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.954043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2546733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e65…1b38backed Yes48c144.06$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.061020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c137.97$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.457,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c130.15$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.464,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c130$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.62,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No46c128.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.011,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No29c126.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.161752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes29c122.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c120$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.554,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb33e…28c3backed Yes65c108.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1411100%11 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+82.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c105.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.81,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed No22c98.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3514250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c96.9$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.15,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No62c89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.352155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes36c87.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8924238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes46c81.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes15c81.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.184,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x724f…a426backed Yes16c80$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.116035%21 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes18c66.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.575141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f8…fcf6backed No67c62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7511363.7%72 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185993.2%55 W · 4 L+21.7wins+0.37per pick56cpaid+80.4%equal weight79+0.26 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes59c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.488176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xef5f…3d94backed Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.07785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.411275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes34c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3526533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcb9…1879backed Yes69c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.354393%40 W · 3 L+14.6wins+0.34per pick59cpaid+59.4%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.691693.8%15 W · 1 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick61cpaid+48%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes30c59.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6782268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No71c59.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8954857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Yes42c53.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes37c51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1311138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No75c50.18$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.450860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b3e…b127backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c47.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.759,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes42c45.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.451,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f5…426ebacked Yes54c44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.24944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be4…56c3backed Yes47c42.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes36c41.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8840739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes29c39.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0377…ae31backed Yes26c39.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.145918.6%11 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes47c38.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.288650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes30c37.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.44233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8003…135bbacked Yes30c37.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.39333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa9…a323backed No64c36.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.087755.8%43 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-12.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8780…5f74backed Yes42c35.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No60c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9643563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No76c34.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.591,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked Yes35c34.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6516263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf760…09e0backed Yes34c34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.45850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No67c33.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2339159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No62c31.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.834,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d60…792abacked Yes52c31.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.281266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d8…9ccdbacked Yes37c30.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.392142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No51c30.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeec…707bbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.193,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No51c28.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.49262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes38c26.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.323748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes44c24.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9752533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No65c24.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No70c21.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No79c20.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.512,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked No72c20.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9824951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c20.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.221,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No66c17.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3241258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No71c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.071,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No72c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No77c13.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4516764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.