Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49e4351963920040fdf7737e914c26669aa940c3a06e31703bab2a5b8b44ba6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked Yes | 19c | 807.29$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.39 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 41c | 488.41$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.31 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 281.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 177.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 150.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 125.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 30c | 110.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 108.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 108.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 67c | 104.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 103.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 18c | 103.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 18c | 76.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 18c | 74.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 19c | 72.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 34c | 71.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 14c | 70.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 37c | 64.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 80c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 49.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 58c | 45.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 34c | 38.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 68c | 37.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 33.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed No | 76c | 33.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 66c | 33.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 38c | 32.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 33c | 30.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde94…6d0fbacked Yes | 44c | 28.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 26.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 44c | 24.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 74c | 19.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 73c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.