Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ddca9e4cc40a4ebd520118b4fe02babf775824a4950f9f271c63fa15e906368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 11c | 2,791$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.23 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 1,305$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 17c | 647.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 614.49$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 536.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 310.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 257.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 173.49$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 30c | 168.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 15c | 123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 113.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 31c | 97.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 91.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 63.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 76c | 62.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 73c | 59.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 54.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…426ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1948…ff2fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 75c | 48.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 29c | 48.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 44.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 43.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 76c | 40.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…e517backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 76c | 37.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 77c | 35.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…09e0backed Yes | 30c | 34.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 27.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 26.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 77c | 25.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…1a87backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 73c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.