Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161e282f03de383c3e4af35360e5db93fb32616ecc160a12dd7b15bba6ac7551
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 40c | 670.35$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.95 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 34c | 332.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 308.85$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 34c | 294.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 253.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 40c | 250.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 31c | 250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 60c | 231.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes | 38c | 205.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed No | 44c | 199.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 195.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 192.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 63c | 183.78$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 171.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed No | 36c | 169.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 158.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 151.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 150.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked No | 41c | 146.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 40c | 143.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked No | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 139.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes | 38c | 135.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 132.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 128.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 64c | 125.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 124.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 39c | 121.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 41c | 109.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 66c | 109.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 44c | 108.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 37c | 108.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…1e97backed Yes | 34c | 105.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 39c | 103.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 61c | 102.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked Yes | 46c | 101.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 101.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked No | 38c | 99.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked Yes | 67c | 99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 93.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…7551backed Yes | 16c | 93.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 48c | 93.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 62c | 89.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 45c | 87.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 87.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 80.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 61c | 78.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 66c | 76.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26c8…876bbacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 74.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 64c | 73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 72.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 70.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…bb24backed Yes | 29c | 68.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 19c | 68.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 62c | 68.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 35c | 65.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed Yes | 20c | 64.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 23c | 64.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 59c | 63.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 63.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked No | 41c | 61.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +250.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 51c | 58.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 60c | 56.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed No | 34c | 55.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 37c | 53.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 39c | 51.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 40c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…affdbacked No | 38c | 50.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 38c | 50.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f22…db25backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 49.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 48.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked No | 37c | 47.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 45c | 44.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 34c | 44.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed Yes | 64c | 44.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked No | 66c | 43.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 34c | 43.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 36c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 57c | 40.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes | 33c | 40.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 39c | 38.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 38.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.