TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,208 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4302…8d4fbacked No40c670.35$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.958253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No34c332.63$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.1917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c308.85$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked No34c294.29$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.052,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes27c253.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.723,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e65…1b38backed Yes40c250.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.961020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes31c250$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.25635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes60c231.3$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes38c205.53$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.83757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed No44c199.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1112828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No67c195.57$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.563,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c192.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.281,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes63c183.78$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.012,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes31c171.84$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4577428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed No36c169.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes65c158.54$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.055,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No61c151.89$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.634,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c150.71$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.963,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc9…b10bbacked No41c146.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.247328.8%21 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed No40c143.56$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.181,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked No30c140$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4311835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No67c139.39$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5333567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes38c135.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.921233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes12c132.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.595,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No62c128.33$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed Yes64c125.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.732,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No57c124.59$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbad…8426backed Yes39c121.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.563938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes41c109.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes66c109.21$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes44c108.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.225230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes37c108.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4027421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b98…1e97backed Yes34c105.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes39c103.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No61c102.48$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d2a…040ebacked Yes46c101.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.92245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+493.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No61c101.2$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes35c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked No38c99.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9711337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked Yes67c99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.335,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…780fbacked Yes23c96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.143441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes23c93.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3860523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90f…7551backed Yes16c93.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes48c93.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9846444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Yes62c89.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.093138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes45c87.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No56c87.37$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.74,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes38c80.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes61c78.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.57,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked No66c76.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.186376.2%48 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x26c8…876bbacked No40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes40c74.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3049941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked Yes64c73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.033,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No64c72.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No62c70.62$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.922,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes16c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.211947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bee…bb24backed Yes29c68.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2993…99b7backed Yes19c68.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.232356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes62c68.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.232,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No60c68$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.251553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No35c65.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.421,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9110…c879backed Yes20c64.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.753348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes23c64.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5921930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes59c63.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6529953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No64c63.69$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.192,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…3c7abacked No41c61.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+250.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes51c58.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed Yes60c56.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.041,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed No34c55.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.519425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes37c54.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes37c53.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No39c51.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.784,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes40c51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.624139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe9…affdbacked No38c50.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.74837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes38c50.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f22…db25backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.631,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x381d…07edbacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+59.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes40c49.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9866926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No65c48.36$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9381756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked No37c47.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.916227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes43c46.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes45c44.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No34c44.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.652,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87de…c545backed Yes64c44.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.281984.2%16 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9646…d98dbacked No66c43.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked No34c43.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5624951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes36c42.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1535133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed8…cad8backed No57c40.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.496266.1%41 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes33c40.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.111816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked No30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed Yes39c38.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9919632.7%64 W · 132 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes31c38.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked Yes69c38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.093,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.