Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba99682563e9590461b0f607fa58aace503c069c168b65fc9fa42b46d32b3625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4282…ea9dbacked No | 7c | 3,075$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 51c | 549.43$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.43 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 43c | 501.2$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.13 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 23c | 435.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 7c | 365.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 339$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 70c | 274.18$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 257.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 70c | 223.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 52c | 200.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 58c | 185.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 47c | 185.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed No | 19c | 173.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 171.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 166.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked No | 30c | 164.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 156.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 70c | 145$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 137.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 31c | 132.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 50c | 127.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 115.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 34c | 108.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 32c | 106.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 72c | 106.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 103$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12b…525cbacked Yes | 40c | 99.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 70c | 98.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed No | 30c | 95.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 68c | 95.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 70c | 95.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c8…876bbacked No | 29c | 91.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed No | 31c | 87.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 34c | 83.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 79c | 82.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 32c | 81.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…4726backed Yes | 62c | 81.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed Yes | 70c | 81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…eeb8backed Yes | 32c | 78.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed No | 32c | 74.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 32c | 73.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 29c | 71.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 25c | 69.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 64c | 69.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2eb…d673backed Yes | 72c | 69.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked No | 30c | 69.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 68.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed Yes | 68c | 68.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 51c | 68.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 26c | 67.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 57c | 66.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 30c | 66.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 59c | 65.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed No | 27c | 63.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 48c | 61.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 34c | 60.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 59.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 48c | 57.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed Yes | 69c | 55.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 36c | 55.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 45c | 54.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 73c | 53.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 33c | 49.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 72c | 48.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…a32dbacked Yes | 31c | 47.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 30c | 47.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 47.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed No | 32c | 47.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked No | 69c | 43.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed No | 28c | 43.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6313…1db9backed Yes | 40c | 42.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…6333backed No | 55c | 41.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked No | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.