Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b91a86f561b7d7a8f8be84e21d0338e2d073119047630ca1e4cfe473859201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4282…ea9dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,977$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,289$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 13c | 1,114$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 10c | 1,050$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 8c | 992.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 13c | 815.73$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 10c | 782.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked No | 17c | 663.37$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.75 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 594.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 8c | 563.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 12c | 546.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 16c | 502.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 20c | 462.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 20c | 460.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 417.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 396.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 388.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 14c | 387.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 369.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 16c | 350$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 15c | 285.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 24c | 280.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 266.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 15c | 256.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 26c | 250.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 239.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 15c | 235.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 17c | 224.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 182.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 9c | 180.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed No | 14c | 179.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.37 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 24c | 152.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 12c | 152$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 137.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 136.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 8c | 125.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked No | 15c | 123.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 14c | 117.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed Yes | 12c | 104.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 16c | 99.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 15c | 99.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 13c | 94.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 18c | 84.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed No | 20c | 75.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…bb24backed Yes | 21c | 70.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed No | 17c | 68.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…0aa7backed Yes | 15c | 66.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 54.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 37.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 67c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 75c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 80c | 17.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed Yes | 80c | 15.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…81eabacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.