Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x553f68a54b1d4f712211be77c57d9ea7ab14c24808474168039d020d5848a88f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 10c | 1,082$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 76c | 676.97$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.52 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 380.19$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 316.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 62c | 297.54$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 29c | 291.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 253.7$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.1 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 230.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 217.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 208.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 201.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 14c | 200.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.18 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes | 17c | 189.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 36c | 165.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 150.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 68c | 146.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 143.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 137.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 135.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 125.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 76c | 112.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 54c | 106.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 37c | 94.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 93.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 84.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 24c | 79.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 67c | 76.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 75.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 22c | 74.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 73.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 71.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 68.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 63c | 66.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…ab8abacked No | 78c | 64.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 63.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 75c | 59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 56.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 64c | 51.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…9a41backed Yes | 80c | 49.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 59c | 49.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 35c | 47.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 32c | 45.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 42.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 78c | 42.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 72c | 41.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…9ecabacked No | 77c | 39.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 50c | 35.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 35.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 62c | 35.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 60c | 33.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 75c | 30.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90de…5b73backed Yes | 60c | 25.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 74c | 25.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 75c | 15.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 75c | 13.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.