Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a43047b26107a68b5e30674df1141f9335050e1c08bf4901713c4a0a4f97a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 207.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 45c | 199.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 26c | 172.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 142$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 44c | 141.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 28c | 124.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 118.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 112.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 108.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 105.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 104.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 40c | 99.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 88.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 66c | 86.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 22c | 85.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 62c | 76.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 73.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 73c | 68.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 25c | 63.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 36c | 62.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 60.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 51c | 59.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 59.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 57.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 23c | 50.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 50.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 35c | 49.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 62c | 47.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 38c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 53c | 45.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 71c | 42.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 39.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 39.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…4c98backed Yes | 49c | 37.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 69c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 69c | 27.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 71c | 25.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 66c | 21.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 75c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 71c | 20.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 66c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 76c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 66c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.